Project Summary
In
April of 2005, the US Environmental
Protection Agency's
National Center for Environmental Research awarded a Science to Achieve
Results (STAR) grant to examine the
Effects of Sea level Rise and
Climate Variability on Ecosystem Services of Tidal Marshes, South Atlantic
Coast. The research
project team, led by Chris Craft (Indiana
University), consists of Samantha Joye (University of Georgia), Steve
Pennings (University of Houston), Dick Park (Eco Modeling), Jonathan Clough
(Warren Pinnacle Consulting), and Jeff Ehman (Image Matters).
The research team will test the effects of rising sea level and greater
interannual variability of climate on extent, type, and ecosystem services
of tidal marshes in the Altamaha, Satilla and Ogeechee, (GA) estuaries.
Ecosystem services related to disturbance (shoreline protection) and gas
regulation (CO2 & CH4 flux), soil formation (C sequestration), nutrient
regulation (N, P retention), waste treatment (sediment deposition,
denitrification), refugium and food (macrophytes & marsh nekton) will be
measured in replicate salt, brackish and tidal freshwater marshes of each
watershed. The Sea Level Rise Affects Marshes Model (SLAMM)
will be used to
predict changes in marsh area resulting from submergence and habitat
conversion. GIS overlays of ecosystem-level measurements will be used to
predict how cumulative delivery of ecosystem services in each estuary will
be altered in response to increases in sea level. SLAMM also will be used to
predict changes in shoreline protection potential of tidal marshes,
commercial shrimp yields and the effects of dikes on delivery of ecosystem
services. The effects of climate variability will be evaluated by analysis
of climate and ecosystem services data collected since 2000 from permanent
plots of ten marshes of the
GCE LTER study
domain.
The research objectives are to (1) provide a basis to understand how
ecosystem services vary among salt-, brackish- and tidal fresh-water
marshes, (2) determine how sea level rise will alter marsh area and delivery
of ecosystem services, (3) evaluate the effect of diking on delivery of
ecosystem services and (4) elucidate how climate variability will affect
temporal patterns of macrophytes, epifauna, sediment deposition and marsh
accretion.
Key Milestones
·
- April 2006 – Updated SLAMM to
utilize Sea Level Rise scenarios as referenced in IPCC Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Significant model optimization to dramatically
reduce run-time (utilization of memory rather than hard-drive for data
management). Added four new land categories to SLAMM 5: Brackish Marsh,
Tall Spartina, Freshwater Shore, and Tidal Swamp. Completed
SLAMM Technical Documentation (v5.0) including all coded equations and
descriptions of model performance and capabilities.
·
May 2006 – Collected of soil
cores from diked marshes for C sequestration and N and P accumulation, and
from undiked marshes for measurement of trace gases (CH4), and
denitrification. Integrated initial SLAMM salinity formulation including
estuary definition. Examined and slightly modified SLAMM elevation ranges
based on available LIDAR data.
·
June 2006 – Added elevation to
the SLAMM Salinity Model to improve the model’s geographical realism.
·
July 2006 – Measured plant
species richness in salt, brackish and tidal freshwater marshes of the
Altamaha, Ogeechee and Satilla Rivers.
·
August 2006 – Collected second
round of soil cores from undiked marshes for trace gas measurement.
Modified SLAMM to produce salinity histograms as part of the GUI and allow
for user entry of salinity ranges for each relevant wetland category.
·
September 2006 – Tested SLAMM
sensitivity to input accretion rates (measured rates on the levee vs.
plain). Found that accretion rates have a moderate effect on the speed at
which salt marsh undergoes inundation.
·
October 2006 – Measured
end-of-season standing crop biomass in salt, brackish and tidal freshwater
marshes of the three river systems.
·
November 2006 – Second project
meeting at Sapelo Island to coordinate research tasks, conduct field work,
and formulate major model revisions for application in river-dominated
estuaries.
·
December 2006 – Extensive work
on Salinity Model formulation. Modified SLAMM designation of “rivermile”
from a straight line to multiple line-segment formulation to improve model
results for curved rivers. Tested and verified new geometric algorithms
within the model. Optimized disk management for SLAMM so to accommodate a
single model run of the entire GA/SC coastline.
·
January 2007 – Established
feldspar marker layers in diked marshes of Altamaha and Ogeechee rivers.
Produced final geospatial data inputs for SLAMM: NWI land cover and NED
elevation data.
·
April 2007 – Finalized “Fresh
Water Head” equation as part of the SLAMM salinity module and applied the
new formulation on the three test estuaries (Satilla, Ogeechee, Altamaha).
Coded for automatic production of “calibrated” frac-fresh parameters for
estuaries when using the salinity formulation to minimize error. Updated
SLAMM 5.0 technical documentation.
more ...
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What's New
- Link to our upcoming
Publication in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,
available online now.
- SLAMM-View,
a web-mapping application designed to facilitate the comparison of the
results from different dates and sea-level rise scenarios, is now ready
for use.
- Year 2 Reports are
now available.
- Presentation by Chris Craft
entitled "Effects
of Accelerated Sea Level Rise on Biogeochemical Cycles of Tidal Marshes
of the Southeast U.S. Coast: A Landscape Simulation" given at the 10th
International Symposium on Wetland Biogeochemistry. April 1-4 2007.
Annapolis, Maryland.
- Presentation by Kimberley
Hunter (Department of Marine Sciences, University of Georgia) entitled
"Salinity-driven patterns in
sediment geochemistry and microbial activity in Georgia coastal
estuaries" given at the 10th International Symposium on Wetland
Biogeochemistry. April 1-4 2007. Annapolis, Maryland.
- more ...
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